How long will it take for electric vehicles to become as popular as smartphones?

  服务案例     |      2022-08-09 14:56:25

For a smooth transition to clean energy, we need to phase out traditional fuel vehicles while rapidly introducing electric vehicles in stages. In the past five years, with the popularity of electric vehicles, we have seen the advantages of low cost of use, quick start and quick acceleration of electric vehicles.



Of course, the further development of electric vehicles also faces many challenges: Are there enough charging facilities? Are there enough materials to make batteries? Can electric cars show their advantages anywhere? Can electric car prices drop?



Ford's electric version of the F-150 is about the same price as Tesla, and its range-extended model starts at about $470,000. It's not just Ford's electric vehicles that are expensive. Until June 2022, the average price of electric vehicles after subsidies will reach about 446,000 yuan. At these prices, can electric vehicles really propel us into the clean energy phase?



It's a bit like the mobile phone market in the late 80s. Owning a mobile phone in 1987 was very avant-garde and a symbol of wealth, when a mobile phone weighed about 900 grams, and even if your mobile phone signal is weak, you can keep talking. At today's prices, the pre-sale price of the phone is around 13,500 yuan, and it costs 845 yuan per month for service, which is more than 6.76 yuan per minute per call.



At the time, mobile phones were the hallmark of conspicuous consumption. Also in 1987, there were 1.08 billion people in China, and only 10 million people used mobile phones. But then the mobile phone market began to develop rapidly, reaching nearly 100 million people in 2000 and 400 million in 2006. Today, mobile phones have developed into smartphones and entered the homes of ordinary people, becoming an indispensable necessities in everyone's daily life.


The comparison of the current electric car market to the mobile phone market of the 1980s is telling. Although sales of electric vehicles increased in 2010, the proportion of electric vehicles on the road remains low. If we are to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, electric vehicles must accelerate along the development curve of the mobile phone market, allowing electric vehicles to enter ordinary people's homes and become a necessity of everyone's life.




In the 1990s, what accelerated everyone to buy mobile phones? The first is the improvement of infrastructure. In the 1980s, US cell phone companies made the mistake of investing in limited capacity and expensive analog cellular service, driving up the cost of cell phones. But in the early 1990s, the mobile phone industry began to turn to the establishment of digital cellular infrastructure, which greatly expanded the market capacity and reliability of mobile phone use.


Second, as the market grew, mass production and competition drove down the price of mobile phones. In some ways, the future of electric vehicles, like EVs, looks promising. Over the past decade, Tesla's Supercharger system has proven that building charging infrastructure can facilitate the expansion of the electric vehicle market. At the beginning of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments jointly issued the "Implementation Opinions on Further Improving the Service Support Capability of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure", which made it clear that by the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan", this will further enhance my country's electric vehicle charging support capability.




While there have been concerns about the upfront cost of electric vehicles, as battery costs continue to fall and electric vehicle manufacturing grows, some electric vehicles are expected to be priced at cost parity with conventional gasoline-powered vehicles by 2025. By then, the life cycle cost of electric vehicles will be much lower than traditional vehicles, and electric vehicles will also be the most cost-effective option.




Driven by improving infrastructure and falling costs, it seems likely that the market for electric vehicles will begin to accelerate rapidly, perhaps even matching the popularity of cell phones in the 1990s.


Compared with the development of smartphones, electric vehicles need to replace the technology of existing gasoline vehicles. But for now, many are comfortable with the infrastructure of internal combustion vehicles. Internal combustion engine vehicles are expected to last a decade or more, which will further slow adoption.




This means that the rapid adoption of electric vehicles will require more than enthusiastic consumers. It will also need good policy incentives. Because the universal development of electric vehicles is not only to improve the driving experience of consumers, but also to alleviate climate change and promote the transition to clean energy, enabling green development.